Just realised I have not written since 28th Feb and its already in the middle of March!! Time flies when you are busy and its good as I will be going back for a short trip this coming friday.
Its also a day to take note of as 14th March is the date where the Thaksin loyalist Red Clan is conducting another mass protest in BKK.
Some friends were a bit concerned I am going back during this period of time but I just have to assure them that it will be fine. I'm a visitor and not a local. Just don't joint any sides or say the wrong things and you shall be fine (I always believe in that logic)
So how will the day turn out for this protest? Frankly, it really depends on who is the army listening too. And for the time being, the current "elitist" gahment has an upper hand as they are able to mobilise the army. This is true by looking at how the army response since the protest and coup in 2006. Army did nothing when yellow shirts are protesting and causing problem in 2006 pror to the coup
And in 2008 when the yellow shirts PAD were protesting against the newly elected gahment, the army did nothing at all to the 10,000 crowd that stormed the gahment house or airport.
And again in 2009 when the red shirt protested and started to amass and violence broke up. The army came in to bail Abhisit out.
So just look what happen after the coup in 2006 and you can tell today will most probably be a failed attempt by the red shirt to overthrow the gahment. The one who are holding the guns will always win the war. ITs always the case in the entire human history.
I do hope nothing really bad will happen this few days but I doubt everything will end peacefully. Something bad will surely happen to end this round of protest.
Most of them I have spoke to and most thailand newspaper say its bad thing for the country but for a longer run, I say its good in a certain point of view. Why do I say that? :) Because it at least serves as a sternful reminder to the current gahnment that the rural ppl are still too socially divided with the elites in bkk and they want their say.
The people from the northern, central and eastern regions are mostly poor rural folks which Thaksin took care of them when they were the most neglected. Some may argue that they get paid if they come and attend the rallies. Then a good question is why are they so easily "moved" to come and attend the rallies? If their living standards and current situations are good. They won't come and risk their lives for a few 1000Bahts... And if they are greedy, how come so many did turned up (latest news puts the figure above 80,000 before 14th March and its still increasing)
So how to solve all these problems? Well I'm not a politician and not a Thai so I can't really say so. I think one way is the gahment is to stop all these witch hunting on Thaksin. Its just adding fuel to the fire and giving the exile a reason to throw his entire fortune to get himself out. You have pushed that guy to a corner and since he can't move any more, he will be desperate to save himself. Put yourself in his shoes. If all your fortunes are going to be confiscated. What will you do??